摘要： 为保障海洋牧场环境监测平台服役期间安全稳定运行，提出了一种基于数字孪生技术的结构安全实时评估方法。采用三级数字孪生架构实现了监测平台整体应力分布状态快速预报和实时可视化。对比了台风“贝碧嘉”期间监测平台监测点的轴力仿真数据与实海监测数据，验证了仿真模型的可靠性；通过对多个工况的批量前置仿真计算，建立了覆盖监测平台服役期间常见海况下的结构应力场响应数据库；在多个环境参数同时变化的情况下，基于结构响应数据库通过改进反距离权重插值法（IIDW）进行快速预报。结果显示：监测点上轴力、弯矩和空间位移的插值数据与仿真数据间的平均绝对误差分别为7.62%、11.93%和5.77%，所有2462根结构杆的插值数据与仿真数据间的平均绝对误差分别为6.24%、7.88%和5.39%。本研究提出的海洋牧场环境监测平台结构安全快速评估方法，为平台服役期间整体应力的实时监测和安全预警提供了可行的解决方案。

关键词: 海洋牧场环境监测平台, 数字孪生, 结构应力场, 快速预报

Abstract: A real-time structural safety assessment method based on digital twin technology is proposed to ensure the safe and stable operation of the environmental monitoring platform of the sea ranch during its service period. A three-level digital twin architecture is adopted to achieve rapid prediction and real-time visualization of the overall stress distribution state of the monitoring platform. The maximum error is less than 10%, which verifies the reliability of the simulation model; the structural stress field response database covering the monitoring platform under the common sea conditions during the service period is established by batch front simulation calculation of multiple working conditions; the structural stress field response database covering the monitoring platform under the common sea conditions during the service period is established by batch front simulation calculation of multiple working conditions;   the structural stress field response database covering the monitoring platform under the common sea conditions during the service period is established by batch front simulation calculation of multiple working conditions; under the simultaneous change of environmental parameters, the structural stress distribution of the monitoring platform can be predicted and visualized in real time.   In the case of simultaneous changes of environmental parameters, a fast prediction based on the structural response database is carried out by the improved inverse distance weight interpolation (IIDW) method, and the results show that the average absolute errors between the interpolated data and the simulation data for axial forces, moments, and spatial displacements at the monitoring points are 7.62%, 11.93%, and 5.77%, respectively. The average absolute errors between interpolation data and simulation data for all 2462 structural rods were 6.24%, 7.88% and 5.39%, respectively. The rapid structural safety assessment method of the ocean ranch environmental monitoring platform proposed in this study provides a feasible solution for the real-time monitoring of the overall stress and safety early warning during the platform's service period.

Key words: marine pasture environment monitoring platform, digital twin, structural stress field, rapid forecasting